Gulf Coast gasoline spot
$2.992/gal
WoW -42.5¢ · 4 wk -4.6¢
Five-year rank: 85th percentile
EIA Gulf Coast spot benchmark; a rack-pricing input.
Inputs actual through 2026-08-10
A transparent read from crude benchmarks through Gulf Coast spot inputs to regional retail—built to show what moved, where it moved, whether it is unusual, and what deserves attention next.
One-page Gulf Coast gasoline read: what changed, where the move sits in the price chain, whether it is unusual, and what to watch in the next public-data releases.
Five-year rank: 85th percentile
EIA Gulf Coast spot benchmark; a rack-pricing input.
Inputs actual through 2026-08-10
Five-year rank: 94th percentile
Spot − WTI/42; a proxy, not refiner profit.
Inputs actual through 2026-08-10
Five-year rank: 30th percentile
Retail − spot; taxes plus unresolved downstream steps.
Inputs actual through 2026-08-10
Direct comparisons to the prior aligned EIA week—not to the time the webpage happened to be generated.
Now $2.992/gal
Now $1.112/gal · 94th percentile of the trailing five years
Now $0.551/gal · 30th percentile of the trailing five years
The four calculated layers reconcile to PADD 3 retail. Spot is the observed rack-pricing input; no layer is an observed terminal rack quote or participant profit measure.
Plain thresholds make every alert inspectable. Sourced event dates are context, never causal proof.
Elevated · 94th percentile
Attention outside the 20th–80th percentile range
97.9%
Attention below the 88% normal floor
Below seasonal range
Attention outside the prior-five-year seasonal range
Typical · 30th percentile
Attention outside the 20th–80th percentile range
Strait of Hormuz flow disruption
Dates provide context only; overlap is not causal proof
Weekly and monthly source dates stay separate. The automated publication gate blocks stale critical inputs before deployment.
Weekly · 4 days before generation
Oldest actual date among the critical weekly inputs
Monthly · 74 days before generation
Monthly RAC is forward-filled between source releases
Monthly publication · 105 days before generation
Pinned CEC source month; never presented as weekly
Crude eased $9.46/bbl and California's spot-to-pump wedge compressed alongside it.
Nationally. The Brent-WTI spread is inside its 52-week band ($2.50/bbl, band $0.82/bbl–$10.69/bbl) — the Gulf Coast structural cost advantage is in line with the recent average. WTI eased $9.46/bbl month-over-month — reducing near-term revenue for domestic (Permian) producers, though it eventually supports lower pump prices downstream.
Gulf Coast (PADD 3). WTI crude averaged $78.02/bbl, down $9.46/bbl vs the prior month, in line with its last few years. The Gulf simple crack proxy (spot gasoline over WTI/42) averaged $1.35/gal, up $0.40/gal vs the prior month, on the high side of its last few years (~100th percentile). The Gulf pump-over-spot wedge (taxes plus unresolved downstream components) averaged $0.30/gal, down $0.21/gal vs the prior month, on the low side of its last few years (~2th percentile). The Gulf simple crack proxy is above its recent range this month; PADD 3 refinery utilization averaged 97.0% (within the normal range), so the elevated crack is not explained by reduced runs. The Gulf pump-over-spot wedge is compressed while spot rose — consistent with retail still catching up to the spot move (the 'rockets and feathers' pattern). For a driver covering 1,000 miles a month at 25 mpg — an illustrative assumption, not a personalized estimate — this month's retail move works out to about $1 less at the pump.
California. California retail gasoline averaged $5.30/gal, down $0.24/gal vs the prior month, on the high side of its last few years (~82th percentile). California's pump-over-CARBOB wedge averaged $1.89/gal, down $0.28/gal vs the prior month, in line with its last few years. For a driver covering 1,000 miles a month at 25 mpg — an illustrative assumption, not a personalized estimate — this month's retail move works out to about $10 less at the pump.
Month-average read of the live weekly data — descriptive, not a forecast. • 'Typical / elevated / depressed' is each series' own percentile against its trailing 5 years of monthly values, so it recalibrates over time. • The Gulf pump-over-spot wedge carries fixed federal + state excise (~$0.38/gal in the TX allocation) plus unresolved downstream components; it is not station margin. • California uses WTI nowhere here; its wedge is CARBOB spot to pump, the sticky-retail story. The CEC-disclosed gross refining margin is a separate, lagged monthly figure shown in the California section.
Latest fuel benchmarks, multi-horizon movements, five-year spot rank, calculated rack-market bridges, supply context, and the actual source week behind every card.
Gasoline
Gasoline spot fell 42.5¢/gal week over week and is near the 85th percentile of its trailing five-year history. The simple crack proxy fell 29.2¢/gal week over week; the pump-over-spot wedge rose 36.4¢/gal week over week. These are directional bridges, not reported rack quotes or profit measures. PADD 3 refinery utilization is 97.9% and PADD 3 gasoline stocks are below their prior-five-year seasonal range.
PADD 3 total motor gasoline stocks. Days of supply is U.S. national; free EIA data does not publish it at PADD level.
ULSD
ULSD spot fell 38.5¢/gal week over week and is near the 90th percentile of its trailing five-year history. The simple crack proxy fell 25.2¢/gal week over week; the pump-over-spot wedge rose 28.8¢/gal week over week. These are directional bridges, not reported rack quotes or profit measures. PADD 3 refinery utilization is 97.9% and PADD 3 total distillate stocks are below their prior-five-year seasonal range.
PADD 3 total distillate stocks are broader than the ULSD price benchmark and are paired directionally. Days of supply is U.S. national; free EIA data does not publish it at PADD level.
The chain in levels: WTI crude (per gallon), the Gulf Coast spot product benchmark used as a rack input, and the PADD 3 pump price. The gaps between the lines are calculated spreads; they are not observed commercial margins. Hover the event markers for sourced context; overlap is not causal proof.
An accounting identity using PADD 3 retail and a TX fixed-excise allocation. The simple crack proxy is spot minus WTI/42; the implied downstream remainder contains unobserved terminal/rack basis, logistics, jobber and station economics, and unlisted taxes or fees.
The calculated bridge month by month. The bands distinguish benchmark input, simple crack proxy, implied downstream remainder, and listed fixed excise without treating any residual as observed profit. Event annotations are sourced context, not causal proof.
The simple crack proxy is spot minus WTI/42 and is not refiner profit. The pump-over-spot wedge includes fixed taxes and unresolved terminal, logistics, jobber, retail-cost, and marketing components. The chart defaults to the trailing five years. Each sourced event is repeated at the same date inside both panels; broad hurricane-season background bands stay off.
Hover an event code for its date, scope, neutral context, and source. Temporal overlap is context, not causal proof.
Same calendar month: California uses the official CEC component estimate; Gulf Coast and Southeast use monthly means of free EIA weekly series. Each layer states whether the measurement is directly comparable.
EIA monthly mean; derived WTI-to-spot-to-retail bridge
CEC published monthly estimate
EIA monthly mean; derived bridge using Gulf spot as the wholesale proxy
California was $2.00/gal above Gulf Coast; Southeast was $0.19/gal above in May 2026.
California's CEC breakdown separately identifies $0.426/gal of Cap-and-Invest plus LCFS, alongside its California-specific crude, refining, distribution, and tax estimates. Southeast shares the Gulf wholesale proxy in this tracker, so its modeled difference appears after Gulf spot—in regional distribution, logistics, taxes, and retail—but the free data cannot isolate those commercial steps.
Comparison boundary: Structural context—not a measured price component.
Large refining and export hub; the Gulf spot benchmark is directly observed, but terminal rack is not.
CARB-spec fuel in a relatively isolated supply system; the CEC publishes a fuller state-specific component estimate.
Very limited local refining; the tracker carries Gulf product and spot economics into the region through the Colonial supply path.
Comparison boundary: Directional only: California uses CEC cost/margin estimates; Southeast repeats Gulf wholesale economics by construction.
$2.490/gal WTI/42 + $1.105/gal simple crack proxy
$2.577/gal CEC crude + $1.238/gal CEC refining margin
$2.490/gal WTI/42 + $1.105/gal Gulf crack proxy
Comparison boundary: Not like-for-like: the CEC margin combines costs and profits; the other two are residual bridges after selected fixed excise.
$-0.030/gal implied remainder
$0.761/gal CEC distribution margin
$0.158/gal implied remainder
Comparison boundary: Partial: California includes estimated sales tax; Gulf and Southeast omit variable sales/local taxes and use one state proxy.
$0.384/gal federal + TX fixed assumption
$0.947/gal including sales tax + UST fee
$0.388/gal federal + FL fixed assumption
Comparison boundary: California-only policy line; not a fixed excise tax or profit measure.
Not a separately itemized Gulf program
$0.233/gal CEC estimate
Not a separately itemized Southeast program
Comparison boundary: California-only policy line; separate from Cap-and-Invest.
No California LCFS component
$0.193/gal CEC estimate
No California LCFS component
Measurement boundary: Do not treat the rows as a perfectly additive cross-market attribution. California is an official CEC state estimate; Gulf Coast and Southeast are EIA-based regional bridges. California taxes include sales tax and its distribution margin combines costs and profits, while Gulf/Southeast use selected fixed-excise assumptions and an unresolved downstream remainder.
A calculated bridge from WTI/42 to spot to regional retail. The simple crack proxy and implied downstream remainder get an elevated or squeezed status pill when the region's own 5-year monthly percentile puts this month in the top or bottom 20% — same rolling-percentile classifier the “Latest month” digest above uses. WTI is a variable benchmark input; the listed excise rate is a fixed allocation assumption.
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · gasoline
Gulf Coast (PADD 3) · diesel
California · gasoline
California's spot-to-pump components run structurally higher than Gulf Coast's — CARB-spec gasoline, LCFS + Cap-and-Trade pass-through (about $0.43/gal separately itemized in the CEC's May 2026 breakdown), and limited in-state refining competition. The status pill reflects change vs California's own 5-year trailing percentile, not a comparison to Gulf — a 'neutral' pill does not mean CA and Gulf $/gal figures line up.
Southeast (PADD 1C) · gasoline
The Southeast simple crack proxy is the Gulf's — the Colonial Pipeline delivers finished Gulf product with no local refining step. The spread above is the Gulf spot-over-WTI proxy surfaced under the SE header; the status pill classifies the Southeast pump-price chain against its own 5-year trailing percentile, not against the Gulf.
The official CEC estimated breakdown keeps crude, refining, distribution, Cap and Trade, LCFS, and every tax/fee line separate. CEC defines its margins as combinations of costs and profits, not participant profit measures.
Current CEC read: May 2026 Cap-and-Invest pass-through is $0.233/gal (3.9% of the $5.949/gal pump price); LCFS is $0.193/gal.
California's declining statewide limit on covered greenhouse-gas emissions. Covered fuel suppliers surrender compliance instruments; one allowance represents one metric ton of CO₂-equivalent.
The CEC estimates the associated gasoline pass-through in $/gal, so the policy component can be read separately from refining, LCFS, and tax.
It is not a fixed cents-per-gallon excise tax, the LCFS carbon-intensity program, or a refiner-profit measure.
California's fuel carbon-intensity program. Fuels below the annual benchmark generate credits; fuels above it generate deficits that regulated parties must balance.
The CEC publishes an estimated per-gallon LCFS pass-through as a separate California pump-price component.
It is not a fixed excise tax, the statewide emissions-cap program, or a refiner-profit measure.
CEC-published estimated price components that combine costs and possible profits within the refining and distribution portions.
California discloses these components separately, providing channel detail that the current free Gulf Coast data cannot reproduce.
Neither line is the profit of an individual refiner, distributor, or station, and neither should be compared one-for-one with the Gulf proxy.
Source: California Energy Commission price-breakdown methodology
Sources: CEC gasoline-price breakdown and CARB Cap-and-Invest overview.
CEC monthly estimates from May 2024 through May 2026. Small source-workbook component residuals are preserved rather than silently forced into a margin. Regulatory markers are sourced context, not causal proof.
Context for the simple crack proxy: how hard refineries are running, how much product is in tank, and the crude backdrop. Orange shading marks Atlantic hurricane season, when Gulf supply is most exposed.
Refinery utilization vs gasoline crack
High utilization with a rising crack is consistent with tight supply meeting firm demand rather than an outage; an outage typically shows the crack jumping while utilization falls.
Gulf Coast gasoline stocks vs 5-year seasonal band
Gulf Coast distillate stocks vs 5-year seasonal band
Context for the broader refining slate — refineries make gasoline and distillate together.
Brent − WTI spread
A wide spread shifts the relative pull of waterborne vs domestic crude and can move Gulf refining economics.
U.S. days of supply
Inventory measured in days of recent demand, which normalises stock levels for how fast product is moving.
Curated global/macro shocks, hurricanes, refinery disruptions, maintenance windows, product-pipeline interruptions, and regulatory changes. Hover a marker for its date, neutral context, scope, and source. Temporal overlap is context, not causal proof. Sources verified 2026-07-24.
| Date / window | Event | Category | Market scope | Context | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2016–Sep 21, 2016 | Colonial Line 1 leak and shutdown | Pipeline disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | Colonial shut gasoline Line 1 after an Alabama leak; Southeast markets relied on inventories and alternate transport. | EIA — Pipeline shutdown disrupts gasoline supply |
| Aug 25, 2017–Sep 6, 2017 | Hurricane Harvey | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | Gulf Coast refinery inputs fell sharply and Colonial briefly curtailed product movements during the disruption window. | EIA — Harvey reduced Gulf Coast refinery runs |
| Sep 14, 2019 | Abqaiq and Khurais attacks | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | The attacks reduced crude processing at Abqaiq and shut the Khurais field for 24 hours; EIA recorded an unusually large Brent price move. | EIA — Oil-supply disruption risk and prices |
| Jan 1, 2020 | IMO 2020 sulfur limit takes effect | Regulatory change | U.S. / national | The global marine-fuel sulfur limit fell from 3.5% to 0.5%, changing the compliance environment for marine fuels and distillates. | IMO — 2020 fuel-oil sulfur limit |
| Mar 13, 2020–Apr 17, 2020 | COVID-19 demand shutdown | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | Travel limits and business shutdowns accompanied a 40% drop in U.S. gasoline product supplied from the pre-shutdown average. | EIA — COVID-19 petroleum-demand decline |
| Aug 27, 2020–Oct 15, 2020 | Hurricane Laura | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Lake Charles-area refinery closures reduced Gulf Coast gasoline production; EIA reported some plants remained shut into mid-October. | EIA — October 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook |
| Feb 14, 2021–Feb 28, 2021 | February 2021 Gulf Coast freeze | Refinery disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Cold weather and power and natural-gas constraints shut or reduced multiple Gulf Coast refineries. | EIA — Cold weather led to Gulf Coast refinery shutdowns |
| Apr 1, 2021–Jun 30, 2021 | Q2 2021 planned refinery maintenance | Maintenance | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), U.S. / national | EIA assessed planned second-quarter refinery outages and expected inventories and imports to cover the reduced production. | EIA — Planned refinery outages in second-quarter 2021 |
| May 7, 2021–May 15, 2021 | Colonial Pipeline cyberattack | Pipeline disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | Colonial halted its main product lines after a cyberattack and reported normal system operations on May 15. | EIA — Cyberattack halts Colonial fuel movement |
| Aug 29, 2021–Sep 30, 2021 | Hurricane Ida | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3), Southeast (PADD 1C) | At least nine refineries shut or reduced production, and EIA reported lower Gulf Coast refinery inputs during September. | EIA — Ida disrupted crude production and refining |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Garyville refinery hydrocracker fire | Refinery disruption | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | A hydrocracker-unit vacuum ejector ruptured during startup after a maintenance turnaround, releasing gas that ignited. | U.S. CSB — Marathon Garyville incident report |
| Feb 24, 2022 | Russia's further invasion of Ukraine | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | EIA documented Brent and WTI trading above $100 per barrel and unusually wide intraday ranges after the invasion and new sanctions. | EIA — Crude prices after Russia's invasion |
| Jun 21, 2023 | EPA finalizes 2023–2025 RFS standards | Regulatory change | U.S. / national | EPA set renewable-fuel volume requirements and percentage standards for the 2023–2025 compliance years. | EPA — Final RFS standards for 2023–2025 |
| Jan 1, 2024–Mar 31, 2024 | Early 2024 Gulf Coast maintenance | Maintenance | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | EIA reported an earlier and larger-than-normal Gulf Coast maintenance season, with regional utilization below 80% in February. | EIA — Reduced refinery activity in early 2024 |
| Jul 8, 2024–Jul 15, 2024 | Hurricane Beryl | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Power outages temporarily reduced several refineries and interrupted Explorer Pipeline operations between Texas and Oklahoma. | EIA — Beryl effects summarized with Hurricane Francine |
| Sep 11, 2024–Sep 17, 2024 | Hurricane Francine | Hurricane | Gulf Coast (PADD 3) | Several Louisiana refineries ran at reduced rates while offshore production and port operations were also interrupted. | EIA — Francine took energy infrastructure offline |
| Jul 1, 2025 | California LCFS amendments take effect | Regulatory change | California | CARB's amended carbon-intensity benchmarks took effect for fuels supplied in the third quarter of 2025 and later. | CARB — 2025 LCFS amendment implementation |
| Feb 28, 2026–Jul 13, 2026 | Strait of Hormuz flow disruption | Global / macro shock | U.S. / national | Following the war that began February 28, tanker traffic through Hormuz fell sharply. EIA reported a June 17 reopening agreement and increased movements, with renewed uncertainty in early July. | EIA — Middle East disruptions in second-quarter 2026 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | EPA finalizes 2026–2027 RFS standards | Regulatory change | U.S. / national | EPA finalized renewable-fuel volume requirements for the 2026 and 2027 compliance years. | EPA — Final RFS Set 2 rule for 2026–2027 |
How fast a move in one link reaches the next. Cross-correlation peaks at the lag (in weeks) where a change in the driver lines up best with a change in the follower; the distributed-lag table puts numbers on each week's pass-through with HAC (Newey-West) standard errors.
Leg 1 — crude → Gulf spot benchmark
| beta | std_error_HAC | p_value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| lag_0 | 0.9660 | 0.0608 | 0.0000 |
| lag_1 | 0.0362 | 0.0465 | 0.4365 |
| lag_2 | 0.0359 | 0.0478 | 0.4526 |
| lag_3 | -0.0390 | 0.0347 | 0.2601 |
| lag_4 | -0.0030 | 0.0451 | 0.9477 |
Leg 2 — Gulf spot benchmark → PADD 3 retail
| beta | std_error_HAC | p_value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| lag_0 | 0.4139 | 0.0312 | 0.0000 |
| lag_1 | 0.2241 | 0.0191 | 0.0000 |
| lag_2 | 0.0727 | 0.0191 | 0.0001 |
| lag_3 | 0.0635 | 0.0201 | 0.0016 |
| lag_4 | 0.0434 | 0.0155 | 0.0051 |
The lag views treat spot rises and falls the same. This asymmetric error-correction model does not: separate pass-through for spot increases (β⁺) and decreases (β⁻), and separate speeds of return to equilibrium when retail sits above (γ⁺) vs below (γ⁻) its long-run relationship with spot. 'Rockets and feathers' is the hypothesis that retail rises fast and falls slow.
Spot and retail share the left axis ($/gal); the dotted line is the pump-over-spot wedge on the right. Shaded bands mark the most pronounced spot swings — green = downswings (the 'feather' if retail is slow to follow), red = upswings (the 'rocket'). A visual aid, not the test below. Global-event markers are sourced temporal context, not causal proof.
Cointegrated at 5% (Engle-Granger p = 0.0007, long-run β = 0.949), so the error-correction interpretation is valid.
Per-lag pass-through (β⁺ up-moves vs β⁻ down-moves, HAC SEs)
| beta_up | se_up_HAC | p_up | beta_down | se_down_HAC | p_down | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lag_0 | 0.6598 | 0.0618 | 0.0000 | 0.2233 | 0.0288 | 0.0000 |
| lag_1 | 0.1557 | 0.0279 | 0.0000 | 0.1754 | 0.0299 | 0.0000 |
| lag_2 | -0.0028 | 0.0319 | 0.9288 | 0.1018 | 0.0284 | 0.0003 |
| lag_3 | -0.0317 | 0.0324 | 0.3269 | 0.1116 | 0.0329 | 0.0007 |
| lag_4 | -0.0249 | 0.0284 | 0.3806 | 0.0931 | 0.0253 | 0.0002 |
n = 840 · HAC maxlags = 6. Two-step Engle-Granger estimator (long-run β treated as known).
A terminal rack price is not the same thing as a Gulf Coast spot price. Spot is a rack-pricing input; terminal, location, supplier, brand, additive, and contract basis sit between the public spot benchmark and an actual rack quote.
Weekly WTI Cushing price; divided by 42 for a barrel-equivalent $/gal input.
EIA weekly series. It is a benchmark, not a refinery's actual crude-slate cost.
Gulf Coast product spot minus WTI/42.
A transparent spread proxy—not refiner profit or a full multi-product crack.
Weekly gasoline or ULSD spot benchmark used as an input to rack pricing.
EIA spot series. This is not an observed terminal rack quote.
Posted terminal price, including location and supplier-specific basis.
No current Gulf Coast terminal-rack series in the free EIA feed.
Rack plus delivery, jobber, brand, additive, and contract-specific economics.
EIA's resale-by-channel survey ended in March 2022.
Weekly Gulf Coast retail price at the pump.
EIA regional retail series; it is PADD 3, not a Texas station price.
Hard boundary: terminal rack and DTW are not observed in the current free EIA feed. Calculated remainders below are combined bridges, not measured rack, jobber, or station profit margins.
Metric-level lineage for every source-published and derived measure: latest observation, frequency, source, verification date, imputation status, and calculation method. A forward-fill is disclosed separately from the observed/derived classification.
| Metric | Group | Observed / derived | Latest observation | Frequency | Source | Verification date | Imputation status | Method / formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Branded Rack price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Bulk price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Crude Domestic price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Crude Foreign price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Dealer Tankwagon price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Internally Priced price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Spot Pipeline price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California Unbranded Rack price | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly disclosure snapshot | California Energy Commission M1322 channel disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Volume-weighted, self-reported refiner disclosure; CEC says the submitted figures are not independently verified. |
| California reported gross refining margin | CEC — SB 1322 channel disclosure | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission SB 1322 refining disclosure | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Source-published gross margin; self-reported and not independently verified by CEC. |
| California Cap-and-Invest pass-through | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California LCFS pass-through | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California crude oil cost | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California distribution margin | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California federal excise tax | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California refining margin | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California state excise tax | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California state/local sales tax | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California total gasoline pump price | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| California underground storage tank fee | CEC — estimated gasoline-price breakdown | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-01 | Monthly source publication | California Energy Commission estimated gasoline-price breakdown | 2026-07-22 | No imputation — pinned source-published month | Published CEC estimate used without reallocating components. |
| Brent–WTI spread | Derived — crude context | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.RBRTE.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Brent ($/bbl) − WTI Cushing ($/bbl). |
| WTI benchmark per gallon | Derived — crude context | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | WTI Cushing ($/bbl) ÷ 42 gallons per barrel. |
| Gulf Coast ULSD implied downstream remainder | Derived — price-chain decomposition | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMD_EPD2DXL0_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG.W + IRS and selected PADD 3 state revenue schedule | 2026-04-29 · 2026-05-31 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 retail − Gulf Coast spot − selected federal/state fixed excise allocation. |
| Gulf Coast gasoline implied downstream remainder | Derived — price-chain decomposition | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W + IRS and selected PADD 3 state revenue schedule | 2026-04-29 · 2026-05-31 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 retail − Gulf Coast spot − selected federal/state fixed excise allocation. |
| Gulf Coast ULSD pump-over-spot wedge | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMD_EPD2DXL0_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 on-highway ULSD retail − Gulf Coast ULSD spot. |
| Gulf Coast ULSD simple crack proxy | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Gulf Coast ULSD spot − WTI Cushing ÷ 42. |
| Gulf Coast gasoline pump-over-spot wedge | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 3 gasoline retail − Gulf Coast gasoline spot. |
| Gulf Coast gasoline simple crack proxy | Derived — rack bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Gulf Coast gasoline spot − WTI Cushing ÷ 42. |
| California gasoline pump-over-spot wedge | Derived — regional bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_SCA_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRR_PF4_Y05LA_DPG.W | 2026-06-05 | All latest inputs are source-observed | California retail gasoline − Los Angeles CARBOB spot. |
| California gasoline simple crack proxy | Derived — regional bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRR_PF4_Y05LA_DPG.W, PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-06-05 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Los Angeles CARBOB spot − WTI Cushing ÷ 42. |
| Southeast gasoline pump-over-Gulf-spot wedge | Derived — regional bridges | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R1Z_DPG.W, PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 · 2026-06-06 | All latest inputs are source-observed | PADD 1C retail gasoline − Gulf Coast gasoline spot. |
| Asymmetric error-correction coefficients | Derived — statistical diagnostics | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Model refit from weekly observations | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Two-step asymmetric error-correction model with separate up/down pass-through and HAC (Newey-West) standard errors. |
| Distributed-lag pass-through coefficients | Derived — statistical diagnostics | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Model refit from weekly observations | Calculated from PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W, PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Weekly first-difference regression with four lags and HAC (Newey-West) standard errors. |
| PADD 3 distillate seasonal stock position | Derived — supply context | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.WDISTP31.W | 2026-06-05 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Latest stock level compared with the same calendar week's prior five-year minimum, median, and maximum. |
| PADD 3 gasoline seasonal stock position | Derived — supply context | Derived in tracker | 2026-08-10 | Weekly, calculated from aligned inputs | Calculated from PET.WGTSTP31.W | 2026-06-05 | All latest inputs are source-observed | Latest stock level compared with the same calendar week's prior five-year minimum, median, and maximum. |
| Brent Spot ($/bbl) | EIA — crude benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.RBRTE.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| U.S. Refiner Acquisition Cost, Composite ($/bbl) | EIA — crude benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-06-01 | Monthly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.R0000____3.M | 2026-05-31 | Latest aligned week forward-filled; source actual through 2026-06-01 | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| WTI Cushing Spot ($/bbl) | EIA — crude benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.RWTC.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Total Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks (kbbl) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.WDISTP31.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Total Motor Gasoline Stocks (kbbl) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.WGTSTP31.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| U.S. Total Distillate Days of Supply (national) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.W_EPD0_VSD_NUS_DAYS.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| U.S. Total Gasoline Days of Supply (national) | EIA — inventories and supply | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.W_EPM0_VSD_NUS_DAYS.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Refinery % Utilization of Operable Capacity | EIA — refinery operations | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.W_NA_YUP_R30_PER.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| California Regular Retail Gasoline, all formulations ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_SCA_DPG.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Retail On-Highway ULSD Diesel ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMD_EPD2DXL0_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Retail Regular Gasoline, all formulations ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R30_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) Regular Retail Gasoline, all formulations ($/gal) | EIA — retail prices | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EMM_EPMR_PTE_R1Z_DPG.W | 2026-06-06 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast Conventional Regular Gasoline Spot ($/gal) | EIA — wholesale benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EER_EPMRU_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Gulf Coast ULSD No. 2 Diesel Spot ($/gal) | EIA — wholesale benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EER_EPD2DXL0_PF4_RGC_DPG.W | 2026-04-29 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Los Angeles CARBOB Regular Gasoline Spot ($/gal) | EIA — wholesale benchmarks | Observed / source-published | 2026-08-10 | Weekly | U.S. EIA v2 · PET.EER_EPMRR_PF4_Y05LA_DPG.W | 2026-06-05 | Latest aligned week is source-observed | Published source series; resampled to the common W-MON panel. |
| Selected PADD 3 fixed-excise allocation | Public policy — fixed inputs | Observed / source-published | 2026-05-31 | Infrequent statutory update | IRS Pub. 510 and selected PADD 3 state revenue schedules | 2026-05-31 | No time-series imputation — manually verified schedule | Federal excise plus the selected state's fixed per-gallon excise and listed fees; not a PADD-weighted tax average. |
Every important term follows the same pattern: what it is, why it matters, and what it is not.
Spot is a regional bulk-market benchmark for prompt product. A terminal rack is the supplier- and location-specific price at which a truck lifts product from a terminal.
Spot is a common input to rack formulas, so it is useful for tracking rack direction and timing when a current public rack quote is unavailable.
Spot is not the rack quote itself. It omits terminal, freight, brand, additive, supplier, contract, and location basis.
The selected product spot benchmark minus WTI Cushing converted from $/bbl to $/gal by dividing by 42.
It shows how far the product benchmark sits above a transparent crude benchmark and makes large changes in the refining portion easy to see.
It is not refinery profit, a refinery-specific margin, or a full multi-product 3-2-1 crack spread; it omits yields, energy, operating costs, credits, and crude-slate differences.
Regional retail price minus the selected product spot benchmark.
It shows the total space between the public wholesale benchmark and the pump and helps track the timing of wholesale-to-retail pass-through.
It is not station margin. It still contains taxes, terminal and rack basis, transport, jobber economics, operating costs, and marketing.
The pump-over-spot wedge after subtracting the selected fixed federal and state excise allocation.
It reveals whether the observed spot-to-retail gap is expanding or compressing after the model's explicit fixed-tax assumption.
It is not an observed rack, distributor, jobber, or station margin. A negative value is an accounting and timing result, not proof that the downstream chain collectively lost money.
The weekly WTI Cushing crude benchmark converted from dollars per barrel to dollars per gallon so it can be compared with product prices.
WTI is the standard transparent crude reference for the Gulf Coast simple crack calculation and gives every price-chain layer common units.
It is not the actual delivered crude cost or crude-slate average for PADD 3, California, or an individual refinery.
EIA's monthly volume-weighted average acquisition cost for domestic and imported crude purchased by U.S. refiners.
It offers an alternative to WTI that sits closer to the average crude cost refiners actually report consuming.
It is not a weekly market quote, a PADD 3-only cost, or an individual refinery's crude slate. The tracker forward-fills it between releases and flags those weeks.
California's fuel carbon-intensity program. Fuels below the annual benchmark generate credits; fuels above it generate deficits that regulated parties must balance.
The CEC publishes an estimated per-gallon LCFS pass-through as a separate California pump-price component.
It is not a fixed excise tax, the statewide emissions-cap program, or a refiner-profit measure.
California's declining statewide limit on covered greenhouse-gas emissions. Covered fuel suppliers surrender compliance instruments; one allowance represents one metric ton of CO₂-equivalent.
The CEC estimates the associated gasoline pass-through in $/gal, so the policy component can be read separately from refining, LCFS, and tax.
It is not a fixed cents-per-gallon excise tax, the LCFS carbon-intensity program, or a refiner-profit measure.
CEC-published estimated price components that combine costs and possible profits within the refining and distribution portions.
California discloses these components separately, providing channel detail that the current free Gulf Coast data cannot reproduce.
Neither line is the profit of an individual refiner, distributor, or station, and neither should be compared one-for-one with the Gulf proxy.
Source: California Energy Commission price-breakdown methodology
A delivered wholesale price charged when the supplier transports fuel to a branded dealer station.
DTW provides a visible seam between rack pickup and the delivered branded-station channel in California's disclosure.
It is not a station's retail price, and DTW minus rack is not pure jobber profit because delivery and other operating costs remain inside.
Gross refinery inputs as a percentage of operable atmospheric crude distillation capacity in PADD 3.
A sharp change helps describe whether regional refining capacity is running normally or under operating pressure.
It is not a direct measure of gasoline output, profitability, or the cause of a crack-spread move.
Current product stocks divided by a recent rate of product supplied, expressed as the number of days inventory could cover.
It normalizes inventory for demand and makes tightness easier to compare across periods with different consumption rates.
It is not a forecast of the date fuel will run out. In this tracker it is U.S. national, not PADD 3.
The most recent source-observed value carried into a later aligned week when that series has not published a new observation.
Forward-filling lets weekly series with different publication timing be compared without hiding which input is older.
It is not a new source observation, interpolation, or forecast. The Data Trust panel always shows the actual source date behind it.